Public concern over global energy demand is nothing new. In 1912, a New Zealand newspaper ran a short article expressing worry about the world’s increasing coal usage. The fear was that the resulting carbon dioxide emitted from homes and power plants would “make the air a more effective blanket” and raise the Earth’s temperature. These fears were warranted, as the article was an eerie prediction of sustainability and climate change.
Today, there are many questions about energy demand and consumption. Can the world produce enough energy to support a growing population? Will we run out of oil anytime soon? Let’s take a closer look at current global energy demand issues and what the U.S. and other countries are doing to alleviate the situation.
What Is the Current Global Energy Demand?
Many countries struggle to keep up with their current energy demands. The global electricity demand grew by 1,414 terawatt-hours (TWh) from 2020 to 2021. To put that not-insignificant figure into perspective, that’s roughly India‘s annual electricity demand.
While energy usage dipped during the pandemic, most countries are back to pre-COVID consumption levels. There are a few exceptions, including Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan. These countries had falling electricity demands last year.
Despite a global push for clean energy sources, coal consumption rose by 9%. That’s the most significant percentage increase since the mid-1980s. Coal usage is growing because renewable energy sources like solar and wind can’t keep up with consumer demand. While coal may account for a high percentage of carbon emissions, it’s an abundant resource. If 2020 coal production levels stay constant, the U.S. still has enough coal to last almost 470 years. Russia, Australia, China, and India also have vast coal reserves.
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What Is the Demand for Energy?
Two ways to measure energy are consumption and demand. Consumption is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh) and is the amount of energy used. Residential customers are familiar with this term because power companies bill by kWh.
Energy demand is the rate at which consumers use energy. All sources of energy, whether fossil fuels or renewable, must be able to meet peak demand. Blackouts can occur when demand exceeds capacity. Energy experts predict the U.S. could see power outages this summer when consumers turn up their air conditioners to stave off the increasing heat.
India is in the midst of an energy demand crisis. Over half of the country’s 28 states are experiencing regular power outages, some as long as 10 hours at a time. India‘s current energy demand is 207.1 gigawatts. However, this figure could grow to 220 gigawatts in the coming months. Coal provides over 70% of India‘s energy, and production hasn’t kept up with demand.
Is Global Energy Demand Increasing?
Yes, global energy demand is increasing. Two primary drivers are the growing global population and climate change.
The world’s current population is around 7.9 billion people. Most of the world’s residents live in China and India, with populations of 1.41 billion and 1.39 billion, respectively.
One estimate states that the global energy demand will increase by 48% in the next two decades, during which the global population will swell to 9.7 billion people by 2050. Emerging economies will struggle to keep up with their growing populations’ energy infrastructure and electricity consumption.
Climate change is no longer a concerning possibility, but rather the world’s current reality. Global temperature records dating back to 1880 show that 2016 and 2020 tied for the hottest years. Energy demand will only increase as homes and businesses need to cool their buildings.
Why Does Global Demand for Energy Keep Rising?
While a growing population is one reason for increased energy demand, so are emerging markets and developing countries. The International Monetary Fund has identified countries with increasing GDPs and emerging economies, including Argentina, China, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey.
While there’s no standard definition for “emerging market,” one generally accepted factor is a growing middle class. People who experience economic growth and have discretionary income consume more energy than their poorer counterparts. They purchase cars, travel, buy appliances, and heat and cool their homes.
Economists also identify emerging markets by their ability to produce and export goods. A growing economy requires more production facilities, factories, and transportation costs.
What Is the Total World Energy Consumption?
There’s no easy way to calculate how much energy the world uses in any given period. Energy consumption includes everything from electricity to operate kitchen appliances to gasoline for motor vehicles. However, we can look at several statistics to get a feel for global energy consumption.
- The annual world electricity consumption was approximately 23,900 TWh in 2019.
- Iceland has the highest electric consumption per capita, averaging 56.8 megawatt-hours (MWh) per person annually. That’s more than double the second-highest country, Norway, which comes in at 26.5 MWh per person.
- China consumes the most electricity of any country, followed by the U.S., India, Russian, Japan, and Brazil.
- The U.S. uses 135 billion gallons of gasoline each year. Passenger vehicles account for 91% of this amount. Combined, California and Texas use 20% of the nation’s gasoline.
What Will the Demand for Electricity Be by 2050?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global electricity generation will reach 45 trillion kWh by 2050. The agency predicts that in Europe, wind and solar will each account for 25% of the continent’s power. The projection for India is that 38% of electricity will still be coal-powered, but solar and wind will grow considerably.
What Is the Fastest-Growing Energy Source?
Solar PV is one of the fastest-growing energy sources, accounting for 60% of global renewable capacity additions. Still, among all renewable energy, offshore wind is expected to see the fastest growth at around 240% by 2026.
While solar currently provides for 3% of electricity in the U.S., the EIA expects that figure to grow to 20% by 2050. Solar power is more straightforward to harness than hydropower and doesn’t emit greenhouse gasses.
Will There Be Oil in 2050?
As a finite resource, there are countless predictions and fears about how much oil is left. One estimate claims that we will run out of proven oil reserves around 2070 if consumption continues at its current rate. Proven oil reserves have the infrastructure in place — or will shortly — to extract oil. In addition, there are oil reserves we know about that have yet to be tapped into by oil drilling companies. And there are likely unknown oil reserves throughout the world.
The 2070 prediction makes two assumptions worth discussing: Oil consumption will remain steady, but drilling and refinery technology will lag.
How Long Will Natural Gas Last?
The U.S. continues to use an energy mix of fossil fuels and renewable energy. Like oil, natural gas is also a finite resource. If dry natural gas production remains constant, the U.S. will have enough to meet the country’s needs for nearly another century.
Electric Car Sales Decrease the Need for Oil
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electric vehicle sales accounted for 9% of the global car market in 2021. That figure has seen steady growth over the last several years. If the trend continues, worldwide oil consumption will decrease and push back the predicted 2070 “end date” for oil. Places that led the pack for electric car sales by volume last year were China, Europe, and the United States.
Emerging Energy Technology Can Make Use of Low-Quality Oil
Not all accessible oil is currently usable. Some of it is of poor quality or contains contaminants. Sulfur-contaminated oil is expensive and difficult to refine. New production methods could make it possible to remove sulfur and expand the world’s proven oil reserves.
In the past, low-grade crude oil‘s (bitumen) sticky texture made refining difficult. But thanks to technological advances, bitumen is now used to create petroleum and asphalt.
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How Is the Global Demand for Energy Worldwide Expected to Grow Over the Next 20 Years?
People living in industrialized nations take electricity for granted, yet there are still 770 million people who don’t have access to electricity. Those living in Sub-Saharan Africa account for 77% of the world’s population without electricity. Some smaller countries in Asia and the Middle East also lag, including Myanmar, North Korea, and Yemen. The IEA aims to bring electricity to 92% of the global population by 2030. Many of these projects will use small-scale energy systems, such as home solar panels, to make power generation possible.
While the need for electricity and energy use will increase globally in the next two decades, car ownership and gasoline demand may fall. Globally, the percentage of people living in urban areas continues to grow and may be as high as 68% by 2050. More city dwellers may opt for public transportation and ride-sharing services, eliminating the need to own a car. However, some people will still want to use a car occasionally. Two U.K.-based companies, Onto and elmo, offer subscriptions for electric-powered vehicles.
Worldwide, there are approximately 16 million EVs in use. Norway leads the world in electric vehicles. The Scandinavian country is on track to meet its aggressive goal of phasing out sales of gas-powered cars by 2025. After Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands had the next highest EV rates per 1,000 residents.
International Energy Outlook: What Does the Future Hold for Global Energy Demand?
The demand for energy supply and climate change are intertwined, as fossil fuels create carbon emissions and global warming. As temperatures continue to rise worldwide, more people will rely on air conditioning and HVAC systems to cool their homes. Some countries, including the U.S. and India, may be unable to keep up with electricity demands this summer. Blackouts are occurring in India and may happen soon in the U.S.
As the global population’s growth rate increases and more nations become industrialized, the total energy demand will increase. Solar and wind energy will continue to expand, bringing electricity to off-grid homes in parts of Africa and Asia.
While coal is a source of carbon dioxide emissions, it’s also abundant and still a source of primary energy consumption. Many countries still need coal to bridge the gap during the energy transition to greener energy sources.
However, the continued use of coal could cause detrimental temperature changes. All OECD countries, including Canada, the U.S., Australia, and the U.K., must phase out coal use in the industrial sector by 2030. The remaining non-OECD countries must follow suit by 2050.
The world is still far from net-zero carbon emissions, but energy efficiency and renewable sources remain on most countries’ long-term agendas. Energy production will need to grow to meet global demand.
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