The COVID pandemic brought a dramatic drop in energy demand and carbon emissions in 2020.   

According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, global energy demand dropped 4.5% last year, while carbon emissions from energy use fell by 6.3%. The figures represent the most significant declines for both since the end of World War II.   

The review states that the world needs to average similar carbon emission reductions every year for the next 30 years to hit the Paris Agreement’s 2050 net-zero emissions target.

Global carbon emissions will decline by around 85% by 2050 if emissions decline at last year’s 6.3% rate for the next 30 years.  

Rising Population, Rising Demand? 

From 2000 onwards, most years have seen energy demand increases of between 1-5%, with a slight drop in 2009 following the global financial crash.    

Global energy demand was just under 400 exajoules (EJ) in 2000, peaking at 582 EJ in 2019. Last year’s COVID hit saw primary energy consumption fall by 4.5% to 557 EJ.    

Population growth coupled with easier access to energy may mean global energy demands continue to increase.   

According to the UN, the current global population of 7.7 billion (2019) could reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and peak at nearly 11 billion around 2100.   

Should energy demand grow at a similar rate (2%) as during 2000-2019, total global energy demand could exceed 1,000 EJ by 2050, testing the world’s ability to reach net zero in the same timeframe.    

However, energy is becoming cleaner. The carbon intensity of energy — the average amount of carbon emitted for each unit of energy used — fell by 1.8% last year.  

Where Energy Demand and Emissions Changed in 2020 

The COVID crisis impacted energy demands in many countries in different ways.    

The United States, India, and Russia reported the most prominent energy consumption drops. Meanwhile, China was the leader among a handful of countries whose energy consumption increased, posting a 2.1% additional usage.    

The oil industry took the biggest hit with demand falling a record 9.3%, around 9 million barrels less a day. With planes grounded worldwide as people stayed at home, jet fuel and kerosene levels plummeted by an estimated 40%. Coal use fell 4.2% and natural gas 2.3%.   

Furthermore, global GDP is estimated to have dropped 3.5% in 2020, making it the biggest peacetime recession since the Great Depression.  

The Inexorable Rise of Renewables in Global Energy Mix 

Renewables were the winner among the energy sectors. Some 358 Terawatts (TWh) of renewable power generation was added in 2020, the largest ever expansion.    

Solar grew by 20%, while wind power added a record 1.5 EJ of capacity. Hydropower experienced a modest 1% growth. China led the renewables drive with a 1 EJ extra capacity, followed by Europe (as a region) with 0.7 EJ, then the United States with 0.4 EJ.   

Overall, renewables now represent 11.7% of total power generation, up from 10.3% in 2019. 

Policy and People Need to Drive Net Zero Emissions   

Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, said: “The importance of the past 70 years pales into insignificance as we consider the challenges facing the energy system over the next 10, 20, 30 years. 

“To reach net-zero, the level of ambition shown by countries and companies needs to translate into significant, sustained falls in emissions. Everyone, from business to governments to consumers, has a role to play in delivering that.”   

The COVID pandemic brought energy use and carbon emissions down to levels that make net-zero by 2050 a possibility. The subsequent economic recovery, population rise, and increased access to energy will have an enormous impact on achieving net-zero. 

Opinion writer: Tom Shearman

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