United States’ emissions climbed by 6.2% last year compared to 2020, with a worrying rise in the use of coal, according to a new report.
The Rhodium Group’s study of U.S. greenhouse gases (GHG) paints a troubling picture for a country committed to net-zero emissions by 2050.
In 2021, coal-powered energy generation emissions soared by 17%, and the transportation industry’s contribution to GHGs increased by 10%, too.
Last Year Could Never Beat 2020’s Historic Emissions
U.S. emissions peaked in 2007 and have declined in nine of the previous 13 years since.
The year 2020 saw the United States register its most significant emissions drop on record. COVID-19 lockdowns, a warmer-than-usual winter, reduced industrial activity, and a more renewables-based energy mix saw emissions plummet to 1983 levels.
Such historic and unprecedented reductions meant 2021’s slow economic recovery resulted in year-over-year emissions increases. The silver lining is that many of 2021’s levels remain lower than 2019, the year before the pandemic.
Coal-Generated Electricity Has Huge Impact
Electricity generation makes up 28% of the United States emissions. Coal-generated electricity jumped 17% in 2021, the first annual increase since 2014 and the driver of a 6.6% rise in electricity generation emissions.
High natural gas prices throughout 2020 may have driven the return to coal, with gas-generated electricity dropping by 3% of its overall share to hold a 37% share of U.S. power generation.
However, coal’s comeback is part of a general trend in countries continuing to use this fossil fuel. The International Energy Agency expects global coal production to increase in 2021 and hold steady until 2025.
Transport and E-Commerce Reshaping Emissions
Transport contributes 31% of the United States GHG emissions. Gasoline and diesel demand almost reached pre-pandemic levels last year. The report found that air travel grew 26% year-on-year but remained 24% below 2019 levels.
The industry’s extra pollution was driven by road freight as people stayed at home and turned to online shopping rather than brick-and-mortar retail. In 2021, e-commerce was expected to account for 15% of total U.S. retail sales, compared to 11% in 2019.
Could 2022 Be the Year of Renewables?
The United States energy market does have cause for optimism on its journey to net-zero emissions. Renewables continued their growth in 2021, with generation rising 4% to reach 20% of U.S. electricity generation for the first time.
More good news comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that predicts solar will make up nearly half (46%) of new U.S. electricity-generation capacity in 2022. Texas and California lead the way with new renewable additions.
Wind (17%), batteries (11%), and nuclear (5%) help renewables total 79% of new electricity generation capacity to be added this year. The only fossil fuel increasing its capacity in the U.S. is natural gas at 21% of additions.
Warmer Weather Coming, No Matter What
The U.N. Environment Programme predicts the world will be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Last year was the fifth warmest on record, with carbon dioxide and methane levels rising.
The European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service also reported several weather anomalies over North America in 2021, along with reduced air quality and extra carbon emissions from wildfires.
Economic Recovery and Emissions Linked
Emissions and the economy go hand in hand, reports show. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a 6% increase in the U.S. GDP for 2021 and a further 5.2% improvement in 2022, mirroring emission rises. The growth follows a -3.4% contraction in U.S. GDP in 2020, when emissions fell.
Pent-up consumer spending resulting in economic growth may impact many countries’ emissions-cutting promises. However, President Joe Biden has pledged to cut United States GHG emissions by half by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Mixed Energy Messages for Post-Pandemic World
The Rhodium Group’s study depicts a complicated energy mix at a critical juncture. Politicians have made many pledges to reduce carbon emissions but need to balance those with economic recovery and growth.
Renewables continue to connect to the United States energy grid and increase its green capacity. Fossil fuels like coal and natural gas refuse to give up market share. Many of 2021’s emissions figures are lower than 2019, but this year could return the U.S. to pre-pandemic pollution levels.
Experts agree the world is experiencing inexorable overall temperature rises. Short-termism and a fossil-fuel-led economic recovery may undo the potential for a green recovery.
Opinion writer: Tom Shearman
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